Nifty Outlook for 18th May 2012


Yesterday we mentioned that small technical rallies of 50-60 points will be sold into.Yesterday nifty failed to close above 4944/4966 level & looking at weak global cues,it seems second round of sell off will take nifty below 4780.Today's key support  level  after gap down opening @ 4762.


NIFTY SPOT TRADING LEVELS TABLE -  CREATED ON 2nd May 2012,UPDATED ON 18th May 2012


NIFTY SPOT PREVIOUS  DAY CLOSE - 4870.20

2	4950	5191	5477
B2	4933	5132	5431
B1	4923	5096	5403
1	4906	5038	5357
A2	4895	5013	5320
A1	4889	4997	5296
=L	4878	4972	5259
=N	4861	4914	5213
=S	4851	4878	5185
1	4834	4819	5139
a1	4823	4794	5101
a2	4817	4779	5078
2	4806	4753	5041
b1	4789	4695	4995
b2	4779	4659	4967
3	4762	4601	4921
	SPOT NIFTY LEVELS - DAY	SPOT NIFTY LEVELS - WEEKLY	SPOT NIFTY LEVELS - MONTHLY
	18th May 2012	14th May -18th May 2012	2nd May -31st May 2012

Nifty Outlook for 17th May 2012

Our projected target of Descending triangle pattern from breakdown level 5180 was 4832 (Nifty made low of 4837).Projected Target almost done.Second leg of selling may kick in if Nifty fails to get past 4944/4966 level on hourly + closing basis.This leg of sell off may coincide with adverse news flow from EURO zone.Crude oil correction may temporary halt the Rupee Downfall,but unless and until fiscal deficit is plugged the macro indicators are worsening & Fisc health will now be the talking point among rating agencies.India may be downgraded if Govt fails to herald second generation reforms.RBI can do little from here on and reduction in Key interest rates will have little or no  impact in improving overall macro economic conditions.The triggers are second generation reforms.This will improve fisc health & also stop further weakening of Rupee against Dollar.As mentioned few days back,Nifty should close above 5378 on day + weekly charts to come out of this spiral of bear phase.The technical rallies or pull back rallies will be sold into.First hurdle zone is 4944/4966,followed by  5086.


Nifty Outlook for 16th May 2012

Yesterday we mentioned on twitter @acestocktips that a small pull back rally is in offing & nifty will rally by 50-55 points towards 4960.But 4966 will prove to be a strong resistance & for the second consecutive day,Nifty failed to take out 4966 on upside.We posted on 26th April-2nd May that May will be brutal month & if Nifty breaks 5180 level on hourly charts & close below 200EMA for two consecutive days , confirmation of descending triangle pattern will trigger fall of 377 points.Nifty will open gap down @ 4880/4890  on account of weak global cues.During intraday,Nifty may drift towards 4832 should 4891 be violated on closing basis on hourly charts.Height of Descending triangle projects Lower Nifty targets @ 4832 & 4709.Technical bounce back rally may kick in after the current downfall leg ceases around 4832 level or 4709 level.


Nifty Outlook for 11th May 2012

Yesterday,we have had mentioned that 5026 would be crucial resistance level on hourly chart (closing basis),Nifty failed to sustain above 5026.5039 was top of the day (Nifty trading table indicated 5040 as top).Selling pressure in afternoon session ensured firm bear grip on the markets.Today's Key support level @ 4932 & Key resistance level @  4989.Nifty will not see significant  pullback rally unless and until 5026 is taken out on hourly basis + closing basis.Below 4968,nifty has slew of support levels between 4932-4885.Nifty breaching the support zone of 4885 on hourly basis + two consecutive closing  will trigger second round of selling that may take nifty towards 4744 level.

Nifty Outlook for 8th May 2012

Today,key levels to watch out Support level @ 5086 & Resistance level 5145. On 30/60min chart move above 5145 will give further traction to Nifty.Nifty may add 50-60 points above 5145.Flip side of this trade would be short trade below 5086 level.Nifty below 5086 may test 5041 level during intraday.

Nifty Outlook for 7th May 2012

Between 26th April to 2nd May when market was oscillating within the range of 5180-5330,we have had mentioned that should nifty break 200EMA (5214) for two consecutive days,A major break down in the trend will give an upperhand to the bears.Earlier,during last week when Nifty rallied towards 5293,we mentioned in our outlook,that Nifty should close above 5338 / 5378 for confirmed trend reversal.Nifty failed to close above 5338 & there was massive correction of 200 points in following 4-5 sessions.Nifty breached 5214 for two consecutive days & 5160 level was also violated on hourly charts.We have  been cautioning the traders that nifty is forming lower highs and lower lows on day charts and weekly charts & break below 5160 will  confirm the bearish formation of descending triangle.Nifty has fallen off the cliff from 5160 level.Any revival should be construed as pullback & not a trend reversal.First signs of trend reversal would be close above 5141 & 5225.

Today,key levels to watch out 5026. Nifty level of 5026/4975 may provide an opportunity for bounce back.Close below 5026 will give second confirmation of a major break down in the trend.Flip side of this trade would be hourly move above 5097.GAAR clarification may pave way for strong bounce back rally.However untill and unless nifty gives two consecutive close above 5378,the market trend is - bearish.

Recall Nifty Outlook for 26th April to 2nd May  2012

We have had mentioned that if 5214 level is breached (200EMA),Nifty will witness a major break down in the trend.

Nifty has breached 200 EMA,however last time around,nifty bounced back from 5160-5180 zone.Two consecutive close below 200EMA will trigger further downfall.So this makes today's session very important,200EMA is placed @ 5214.For intraday,Nifty sustaining above 5225 on 30min/60 min chart will set up long trade with potential intraday targets in range of 5268-5276.The target may extend upto 5292 if 5276 is breached on 15 min charts.Conversely,move below 5201 Nifty can retest Yesterday's low.Below 5160,Nifty can fall upto 5080.Positive global cues may give minor gap up opening,but traders should watch out 5201 & 5225 levels on 30min/60min chart before initiating the trade.


5177 Key support level on hourly chart,break below this level on hourly chart will take nifty towards 5080/5026 level in next few sessions.Conversely a move above 5225 will see further upside towards 5292 in nifty.Past few instances have seen NIfty bounce back from  5160-5180 zone.However this time around should nifty break this zone on hourly chart,bears will have an upperhand. For confirmed trend reversal,Nifty should close above 5378 on day + weekly basis in order to break the current bearish formation of lower highs and lower tops.